All of BC Now Subject to Aboriginal Title Claims

There is a lot happening right now: inflation surprised higher, the Bank of Canada faces pressure ahead of its next decision, the rental and labor markets are showing mixed signals, and a landmark court ruling in Richmond has major implications for property rights across British Columbia. I want to walk you through what I am seeing on the ground, why some of the official data may be misleading, and what it all means for homeowners, buyers, and investors.

Inflation came in hotter than expected, but look closer

Statistics Canada reported headline inflation of 2.4% year over year with core prices accelerating above the Bank of Canada target. That sounds worrying at first, but the main driver behind the uptick was shelter costs and rents. StatsCan showed rents rising 4.7% year over year and an annualized 6.1% over the past three months.

That seems at odds with real time rental data. Sources that track asking rents, like rentals.ca, have shown declining asking rents for 12 consecutive months. In reality, most major metros in Canada are seeing rents come down, in some cases down double digits from peak levels in Vancouver, Toronto, and Calgary.

Why StatsCan’s rental data can mislead

StatsCan often relies on surveys of property managers and turnover rents. That introduces a distortion: when a long-term tenant paying below-market rent moves out or dies, the new tenant signs a lease at current market rent. The increase at turnover gets recorded and can push measured rent growth up even while asking rents in the market are falling.

Add to this a record pipeline of rental units under construction that will be completed over the next 1 to 3 years. Supply is increasing just as demand softens, which should add continued downward pressure on rents in many metros.

Bank of Canada: markets are looking through noisy rent data

Because rent data is noisy and arguably overstating inflation pressure, markets are largely looking through the headline number. At the time of this writing, market pricing implies about an 85% chance that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 25 basis points on October 29.

I am aligned with that. But it is important to be realistic about what a rate cut will do. Cutting the policy rate is not a magic fix for current housing market dynamics.

Rate cuts will not instantly revive the housing market

This year I have heard over and over that rate cuts will rescue sellers and turn the market. That has not happened. The problem today is not just the cost of borrowing; it is a lack of confidence.

• Households are worried about the economy and job security.
• When people fear job loss, they do not make large financial commitments like buying a home or stretching for a larger mortgage.
• Survey data and real-world behavior show the labor market is softening. Layoff headlines and trade uncertainty contribute to diminished buyer confidence.

In short, even if the Bank of Canada eases next week, do not expect a sudden return of buyers. The inventory that has built up and price adjustments that are underway are likely to remain in place through the end of the year.

Richmond ruling: aboriginal title coexisting with fee simple

Now to the case that could have the biggest knock on effects for real estate in BC. The BC Supreme Court recently issued a decision in the Richmond area recognizing Cowichan First Nations aboriginal title on roughly over 700 acres of land. The court said the First Nations title can coexist with private fee simple title. In plain language, the law says both titles can exist side by side.

“You cannot have two titles that coexist.” – the practical reaction from lenders and markets

That sounds tidy on paper, but how this works in the real world is a different story. Banks, developers, and buyers need certainty. Title ambiguity shuts lending down.

Immediate practical consequences

Here is what is happening in practice:

1. Banks are declining to lend on properties that are in dispute or where ownership status is unclear.
2. Without mortgage financing, properties lose liquidity. Buyers cannot easily obtain funding to transact, and developers cannot secure financing to build.
3. That means homes, condos, and land that are now identified in dispute are not selling. Sellers get stuck, and prospective buyers step away.

Think about a homeowner in a one-bedroom condo in the Richmond pocket who just had a second child and needs more space. If their building sits on land now in dispute, they cannot sell and move even if buyers exist, because lenders will not underwrite mortgages on that title uncertainty.

Why this could be more than a local Richmond problem

We must remember that roughly 90% of land in British Columbia is unseated. Unseated means treaties were never negotiated with many First Nations groups. The Richmond decision may be the first high-profile ruling of its kind, but it could be the tip of the iceberg.

If other First Nations bring similar claims, more parcels of land across the province could be affected. That would create widespread uncertainty, trigger more legal disputes, and likely require extended treaty negotiations or settlements to resolve title questions. Those negotiations do not happen overnight and can take years.

What this means for investors, homeowners, and the market

From a strictly real estate and investment perspective, these are the takeaways:

• Title certainty drives investment. Without clear, enforceable title, banks will not lend and projects are not investable.
• Liquidity dries up. Properties in dispute are harder or impossible to sell until the title issue is resolved.
• More claims are possible. The Richmond ruling may encourage additional claims on other unseated lands in BC.
• Negotiations will be lengthy. Resolving title issues through treaties or settlements takes time and likely public funds.

This is not a political statement for or against reconciliation. The point is practical: the legal finding that two titles can coexist does not translate well into the day-to-day operations of banks, developers, and buyers. The market reacts to certainty or the lack of it. Right now, much of the market is seeing a reduction in certainty.

Where to watch next

Key items to monitor in the coming weeks and months:

• The Bank of Canada decision on October 29 and subsequent commentary on the economy. Markets are pricing a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, but that will not automatically fix confidence-driven housing weakness.
• Actual transaction and asking rent data in major metros to see if rents keep drifting lower as new supply comes online.
• Developments in the Richmond legal case, provincial or federal appeals, and any guidance from banks on lending policy to impacted areas.
• Any new First Nations claims or decisions affecting additional parcels of unseated land in BC.

Final thoughts

The headlines are noisy. Digging into the data and understanding how real-world markets operate matters. Right now, the data story on rents is mixed depending on the source. The macro story on rates points toward a probable cut, but household confidence and the labor market are the binding constraints for housing demand.

And in British Columbia, the Richmond decision is raising a structural and long-term issue around title certainty that goes far beyond any single municipality. For homeowners, investors, and lenders, the main concern is practical and immediate: if you cannot rely on a clear title, you cannot count on liquidity, financing, or the ability to transact.

We will keep watching these developments and monitor how markets and policymakers respond.