The signs are getting harder to ignore: Vancouver’s real estate market is feeling the pressure, and for many segments, it’s beginning to feel like a bubble burst in slow motion. From record-breaking inventory levels to shaken investor confidence and a stalled pre-sale market, this isn’t a blip—it’s a structural shift.
Demand Is Running on Empty
Let’s start with what the numbers are telling us. Home sales in Greater Vancouver are scraping near record lows—levels we haven’t seen since the 2019 stress test fallout and April 2020’s pandemic lockdown. Investor-heavy segments are leading the slide.
Burnaby towers, downtown micro-condos, and Surrey City Centre high-rises are at the heart of it. Units are sitting, bids are low, and confidence is evaporating. The speculative fuel that drove prices up is now draining fast.
Inventory Overload: The Weight of Unsold Units
The most visible symptom of this Vancouver bubble burst? Inventory. Months of inventory across the region now exceed seven months, a level that typically triggers downward pressure on prices.
Some condo towers in Brentwood and Surrey have 50+ similar units listed at the same time. In these buildings, the first seller to price aggressively resets the comps—and the rest are forced to follow. One price cut triggers another, and another.
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Investors Trapped Between Losses and Carry Costs
Those who bought pre-construction 5–6 years ago are finally receiving their keys—and many are seeing red. With higher-than-expected mortgage rates and rents falling short of covering costs, investors are losing $700+ a month just to hold.
Many are asking the same question: “Do I take a $100K loss now, or bleed cash until I’m forced to?” The exit doors are crowded, and there aren’t many buyers waiting on the other side.
Pre-Sale Market: Frozen in Time
Pre-construction was the golden ticket during the boom. Today, it’s frozen solid. Resale units are cheaper, and there’s no appetite for paying 10% more on a unit that won’t complete for years.
Even the giants are feeling it. Rennie Marketing, Vancouver’s biggest pre-sale marketing firm, just cut 25% of its workforce. That’s not a blip—it’s a warning sign.
Sellers in Denial, Buyers in Control
Despite the shift, many sellers are clinging to 2022 pricing. But in a market this soft, the lowest-priced unit sets the new benchmark. Sellers refusing to adjust are simply stacking stale inventory on top of an already saturated market.
Realtors are delivering hard truths: “If you’re not ready to drop the price, you should drop the listing.”
Rate Cuts Aren’t a Magic Fix
The Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut has barely moved the needle. Yes, mortgage rates have dipped—but demand hasn’t come roaring back. Tariffs and economic uncertainty are still casting a long shadow.
Sellers holding out for a recovery that’s “just around the corner” have already waited through 2022, 2023, and now half of 2025. At some point, optimism becomes financial erosion.
The bubble burst in Vancouver isn’t a dramatic pop—it’s a slow, grinding deflation. The warning signs are clear:
- Record condo inventory on the resale market
- Investor-owned pre-construction units with no buyers
- Negative cash flow and shrinking exit options
- Psychological resistance from sellers delaying price discovery
- Demand that remains muted, even with lower mortgage rates
While negative amortization headlines have faded—BMO now reports just 1.6% of its book impacted, down from 15%—it’s not the root issue anymore.
The true risk? Liquidity. Sellers can’t sell. Buyers aren’t buying. And inventory continues to build. If this isn’t a bubble bursting in real time, it’s about as close as it gets.
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