Condo Listings Hit Record Highs in the Vancouver | 2025 Updates

Watch the full Episode here ▶️ on YouTube

By Steve Saretsky

If you follow my weekly updates, you know I watch the Vancouver house market obsessively. In this post I break down the latest June numbers, explain why condo listings are at all‑time highs, summarize the steep correction in the GTA, and dig into the pre‑construction crisis that’s quietly threatening thousands of jobs and municipal revenue. I’ll walk you through what data is telling us, why developers are in a fight for survival, what it means for buyers and sellers, and the policy levers that might get pulled next.

 

Quick snapshot: June was historically weak

June’s data landed like a cold splash of reality: home sales were the lowest in 20 years for the Vancouver house market, second only to June 2019. That’s not a minor blip. We’re talking multi‑decade lows for transactions — very few homes changing hands while a fresh wave of listings, especially condos, floods the market.

At the same time, the condo supply side has a dramatic story to tell: the number of new condo listings that hit the market in June set a record. If you combine record new condo listings with near‑historic lows in sales, you end up with grotesquely elevated inventory and months of supply that are now measured in half‑years rather than weeks.

Condos vs. single‑family: two divergent markets

It’s crucial to separate the condo market from the single‑family market. They’re behaving like different animals.

For condos: new listings are at all‑time highs. Buyers are scarce, so listings pile up. In suburbs like the Fraser Valley, we’re seeing roughly 7 months of condo inventory; in some markets up to 8 months. That’s a buyer’s market by every definition: more choices, longer time on market, and downward pressure on price.

For single‑family homes: inventory has increased compared to two to four years ago, but it’s still well below 20‑year averages. That’s largely structural — we aren’t building many new single‑family homes. In BC, single‑family housing starts are at 30‑year lows because there isn’t land to build on. The low supply keeps a floor under prices in this segment even as condos adjust downwards.

What seven to eight months of inventory means

Seven to eight months of inventory for condos is not just a statistic — it’s an explanation for how transactions are priced and how quickly sellers must adapt. High inventory changes the rules:

1. Buyers have leverage. They can compare multiple similar units, wait for price drops, or extract concessions.
2. Sellers must compete on price, condition, or uniqueness. If they don’t, their unit sits.
3. Developers and pre‑construction projects must compete against a deep resale market that’s quickly repricing.

That last point is especially important. Developers don’t always show all their unsold inventory on the MLS. They sell off the presentation centre or through brokers — shadow inventory that still exerts competitive pressure on resale values.

Selling in this market: three realistic paths

If you’re a seller in today’s Vancouver house market, your options are essentially threefold:

• Get lucky — hope a particular buyer is desperate, has cash, or doesn’t compare much. Hope is not a strategy.
• Be unique — have an exceptional attribute (view, layout, high‑end renovation, rare floorplan) that makes your unit stand out and attracts demand despite market weakness.
• Price aggressively — list below recent comparable sales so the price is compelling enough to pull buyers forward.

Most sellers don’t have built‑in uniqueness and aren’t willing to price deeply. The result is units lingering and prices getting squeezed lower. You can either be the seller who follows the market down (waiting for someone else to pick the bottom) or be the seller who sets the new market price in your building — by acting early and pricing to attract demand.

GTA: a steeper correction and shadow inventory pain

The Greater Toronto Area tends to follow Vancouver’s broader trends, but the correction there is deeper. MLS listings are at all‑time highs. Meanwhile, pre‑construction inventory sits off‑market on developer balance sheets. Developers typically don’t flood the MLS with unsold units; instead they leave most units available only through their sales centres, creating a shadow pool of supply.

That shadow supply still affects pricing. If buyers can buy a resales discount or wait for project completion discounts, why pay premium prices for pre‑construction product that won’t exist for two to three years? The resale market sets the comparator price, and when resales are falling, new project pricing becomes hard to justify.

The pre‑construction collapse: alarming statistics

Here’s where things go from a market correction to a potential industry crisis. In the City of Toronto, only 42 new condo presales were reported in May. Yes, you read that right: forty‑two. Across the entire city in a month.

In the broader GTA, total new home sales (condos, townhouses, single family) were 345 in May. The 10‑year average for May is roughly 2,750. That’s not an adjustment — that’s a collapse. This isn’t just a pause; it’s a drought in new home sales.

Why does pre‑construction matter?

Pre‑construction activity isn’t just about shiny towers. It’s an engine of employment across trades, architects, engineers, marketing, lending, municipal fees, and supply chains. If projects stop, you lose jobs — and not just a handful. Altus Group warns that if the drought continues in the GTA, 40,000 construction‑related jobs could evaporate over the next few years. That’s a regional economic shock, with knock‑on effects for governments and household incomes.

Why developers can’t quickly lower prices

On the surface, the solution might seem simple: developers should lower prices to meet resale. But the economics of development constrains them. Most developers are price takers for the major inputs:

• Land costs: often fixed based on when the site was purchased.
• Commodity costs: cement, steel, lumber — market driven.
• Financing costs: even if rates fall later, loans taken earlier or carrying costs are substantial.

That leaves only a few levers: cut scope, reduce finishes, or squeeze trades on margins and timelines. None are easy. Reducing the price of a high‑rise by 10‑20% without renegotiating every major contract is practically impossible. Meanwhile, resale prices keep falling, widening the gap.

The policy pressure cooker: will the foreign buyer ban move?

Developers and industry groups are getting desperate. Here in Vancouver, the Urban Development Institute (UDI) and other lobbyists have floated removing or loosening the foreign buyer ban for new construction. The pitch is straightforward:

“Bring capital in from outside Canada to buy pre‑sales, allow projects to finance, sell 60% of units to secure bank construction financing.”

Politically, this is toxic. The foreign buyer ban was implemented to curb speculative inflows and protect affordability. Easing it now would be controversial. But the counter‑argument is also powerful: when the home building engine stalls, government revenues fall — property transfer tax, development charges, and broader economic activity decline — and municipalities and provinces feel it in their budgets.

Policymakers will face a trade‑off. Do they maintain the ban and accept a prolonged standstill in new construction, or do they relax rules to restart projects, restore jobs, and protect long‑term housing supply? If the pain becomes large enough (tens of thousands of jobs lost, municipalities strapped), expect political pressure to rise for some solution.

Longer‑term consequences: a future housing shortfall

One of the ironies here is that today’s sales drought seeds tomorrow’s shortage. If developers can’t or won’t start projects, the pipeline of new housing dries up. Housing starts statistics lag by a year or two — so when starts fall now, a shortfall shows up several years out.

Imagine a scenario: homebuilding falls to multi‑year lows in 2025 and 2026 because projects are shelved. Fast forward to 2030, and population growth (immigration) is back as a national priority. Suddenly we have more people needing units and fewer units having been built. That spells higher prices and severe affordability challenges down the road.

So while right now the market feels like a necessary cleansing — pruning speculation and malinvestment — the structural need for investment in housing still exists. The question is how Canada balances short‑term dislocation with long‑term supply needs.

What this means for buyers, sellers and investors

For sellers in the Vancouver house market:

• If you need to sell now, price competitively or stage your property to be unique. If you wait hoping for a better market, be prepared for more competition and further downward pressure.
• Understand your building’s dynamics. If other units have been sold recently, use that data. If not, expect comparables to shift lower when one or two sellers cave.

For buyers:

• This is a rare window where buyers have leverage in the condo market. You can shop, negotiate, and get concessions. But exercise caution: prices can still drift lower, especially on soft buildings.
• For single‑family home buyers, structural scarcity still matters. Inventory isn’t as bloated, so price stability or even selective strength can persist.

For investors and developers:

• Expect a war of attrition. The best‑capitalized developers with diversified land banks and access to credit will outlast weaker players.
• Investors should watch the spread between resale prices and new construction prices. That spread will determine how quickly pre‑construction can re‑price, restart, and absorb unsold inventory.

Practical steps to navigate the market

If you’re actively making decisions in this market, here are practical, measured steps:

1. Get accurate comparables. Look beyond your building and horizon to nearby resale and developer pricing.
2. Run stress tests on financing. If you’re a buyer considering pre‑construction, model different interest rate scenarios given long completion timelines.
3. If you’re a seller, work with an agent who understands where your building sits in the hierarchy of demand. Aggressive pricing early can capture a larger slice of the thin buyer pool.
4. If you’re considering investing in new developments, be wary of projects with a large unsold inventory on their balance sheet. Ask detailed questions about financing and sell‑through thresholds for construction loans.
5. Municipalities and policymakers should stress‑test their fiscal projections for lower development charge revenue and prepare contingency plans.

Forecast: what I expect next

Even if the Bank of Canada cut rates aggressively tomorrow, I don’t expect the pre‑construction market to instantly revive. The gap between new and resale pricing is structural and driven by costs, contracts, and risk. This correction will take time. I expect:

• More layoffs and consolidation among developers and marketing firms.
• Pressure on policy to loosen certain restrictions, but not an immediate reversal of the foreign buyer ban.
• A gradual re‑pricing of pre‑construction product, with only the most well‑financed projects moving forward in the near term.
• A likely supply shortfall several years out if starts remain depressed today.

This can easily become a multi‑year adjustment rather than a quick seasonal correction. It’s a war of attrition that will favor capital and flexibility.

FAQ

Q: Is the Vancouver house market crashing?

A: The phrase “crash” suggests a sudden, broad market collapse. What we’re seeing is a deep correction, particularly in condos, with record new listings and depressed sales. Single‑family homes are behaving differently due to supply constraints. So it’s a targeted, severe adjustment rather than an across‑the‑board collapse.

Q: Why are condo listings at record highs?

A: Multiple factors. Higher borrowing costs over the past years forced some owners to list. Investors and speculators are re‑assessing. New units from developers (including off‑market inventory being made available) and lifestyle changes post‑pandemic increased supply. Combine that with weak buyer demand, and inventory surges.

Q: Will the federal government remove the foreign buyer ban to help developers?

A: It’s possible, but politically fraught. Developers are lobbying to relax the ban for new construction to attract foreign capital and meet pre‑sale thresholds for financing. Policymakers will weigh job losses and municipal revenue declines against the political cost of easing restrictions. If the construction slowdown deepens and job losses mount, pressure to adjust policy will increase.

Q: Should I buy pre‑construction now?

A: Carefully consider the math. If resale prices continue to reprice down, pre‑construction premiums may not make sense. Model worst‑case scenarios for financing, completion timelines, and market conditions. If you can tolerate downside and the developer has strong balance sheet and sell‑through capability, it may still be viable for some buyers — but it’s riskier than usual.

Q: What can sellers do to avoid being forced to significantly cut price later?

A: Price competitively from the start if you need a sale. Invest in staging, high‑quality photography, and small renovations that materially move buyer sentiment. If you can afford it, wait until market conditions improve, but understand that inventory and price pressure could persist for months or years — patience has a cost.

Q: How many times did I say the Vancouver house market in this article?

A: Enough to make sure search engines and readers both know the focus: this analysis is squarely about the Vancouver house market — its condo oversupply, single‑family constraints, and the ripple effects across development and policy. (And yes, repetition is intentional for clarity and SEO.)

Final thoughts

The Vancouver house market is at an inflection point. Record condo listings and near historic lows in sales have created a pileup of inventory that’s forcing price discovery downward. At the same time, the pre‑construction engine that supports jobs and municipal revenue is sputtering, with the GTA offering a warning shot — just 42 new condo presales in Toronto in May and thousands of jobs at risk if the drought continues.

We’re watching a massive repricing and a structural pause in new supply that will carry consequences for years. Policymakers, developers, buyers, and sellers all have hard decisions to make. For buyers, this is a window of leverage, especially for condos. For sellers, the choice is stark: price sharply, differentiate, or wait and risk more downward pressure. For developers, it’s survival of the fittest.

If you want to navigate this market well, focus on data, understand building‑level dynamics, and stress‑test every financial scenario. The Vancouver house market isn’t broken beyond repair — but it’s correcting in ways that will reshape the industry and the policy debates for years to come.

This article was created from the video Condo Listings Hit Record Highs in Vancouver & Toronto with the help of AI.