Greater Vancouver Condo Sales Recover to Normal Levels in September

October 7, 2019

The condo market showed significant signs of stabilization as sales jumped 43% from last year. In fact, sales are hovering right around ten year averages. This coincides with our view that it has once again become a local end user market. Armed with ultra borrowing rates, and full employment, this segment of the market is back and moving after a twelve month hiatus.

Greater Vancouver condo sales for September — Greater Vancouver condo sales historically for the month of September.

Condo prices are beginning to show signs of stabilization as well. In the chart below we can see the MLS benchmark (a smoothed out and lagging indicator) showing prices being down 6.5% year-over-year, while the average price per square foot is drifting closer to positive territory, but still down 2.5% from last year.

Greater Vancouver condo prices — Greater Vancouver condo annual price changes as of September 2019.

Similar to the detached market, new condo listings are also being suppressed as disgruntled sellers hold on for better market conditions. Although, we believe given the record number of new units coming to market in the next eighteen months that condo supply will prove much more elastic. Regardless, the months of inventory today remains in check at 4.4 months of supply. This is considered balanced, and is not indicative of seeing downwards pressure on prices. Hence our overall view that condo prices have stopped falling for now and have been essentially flat over the last few months.

Greater Vancouver Condo MOI — Months of inventory for Greater Vancouver condos.

All in all, the condo market looks healthy right now, listings are moving fairly well at the more affordable price ranges. The higher up you go, the softer the conditions and the easier it becomes for buyers to negotiate on prices.

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