September Market Update Full Analysis
Just the other day I was accused by a fellow Realtor that the numbers I released were ‘fear mongering’ and that I should be advising on clients on “trends” not a small 11 day sample. He was referring to my recent post September Sales on Pace for Record Lows. Advise on trends? If I advised you on trends, which is what the REBGV MLS HPI benchmark does, then my clients would be grossly overpaying for any purchase. Following trends shows detached house prices were up in August.
Detached Housing Market
Sales from September 1-15 Vancouver East- 21 Vancouver West- 36 Richmond- 35 Burnaby-22 New Listings from September 1-15 Vancouver East- 136 Vancouver West- 105 Richmond- 112 Burnaby- 84 Current Inventory as of September 15 Vancouver East- 650 Vancouver West- 598 Richmond- 782 Burnaby- 464 So what does this all mean? If we double sales to account for the remaining 15 days of September, it will be the fewest amount of sales in September over the last 10 years for Vancouver East & West.
Condo Market
Sales from September 1-15 Vancouver East: 40 Vancouver West: 155 Richmond: 57 Burnaby: 78 New Listings from September 1-15 Vancouver East: 93 Vancouver West: 285 Richmond: 94 Burnaby: 93 Current Inventory Vancouver East: 203 Vancouver West: 865 Richmond: 380 Burnaby: 315 Projected Sales to Actives for End of September Vancouver East: 31% Vancouver West: 31% Richmond: 27% Burnaby: 47% Sales to actives ratio is down quite a bit when comparing to August.
Townhouse Market
Sales from September 1-15 Vancouver East- 8 Vancouver West- 16 Richmond- 27 Burnaby- 13 New Listings from September 1-15 Vancouver East- 25 Vancouver West- 35 Richmond- 48 Burnaby- 25 Current Inventory- Vancouver East- 60 Vancouver West- 90 Richmond- 226 Burnaby- 112 Townhouse sales will be below August numbers. We are also on pace for more new listings than in August. This is continuing to widen the gap and shift the townhouse market more towards a buyers market. Although sales to actives ratios still show it’s slightly a sellers market (Anything above 20%) Sales to Actives Ratio: Vancouver East: 21% Vancouver West: 29% Richmond: 22% Burnaby: 21% Again, this is a pretty big change in the sales to active ration when comparing to August.
Summary
In summary, across the board, September numbers appear more like August numbers. Could this be a delayed effect from the tax? The detached market is clearly in a buyers market. It’s flooded with backed up inventory. The condo market remains a sellers market however the gap is narrowing. It will take an increase of inventory to really move things there. As for the townhouse market, sales are slowing significantly, the sales to actives ratio has been dropping about 20% each month since June.