Hi, I’m Steve Saretsky. In this post I walk through what’s unfolding in Vancouver’s housing market right now — the reasons the pre-construction sector is the biggest risk, the data showing developer-held inventory at multi-decade highs, and a deep dive into the resale market so you can make smarter decisions as a buyer or seller.
Quick overview — main takeaways
- Pre-construction is the largest systemic risk: developers are sitting on record unsold inventory and many projects are defaulting.
- Developer-owned unsold inventory is at levels not seen in 24 years (CHC / Altus Group data confirm this).
- New project launches in the Lower Mainland have effectively stopped — zero launches in August and September.
- Resale market is softening: Greater Vancouver sits around 8.8 months of inventory, the highest since spring 2020.
- Market conditions remain favorable for buyers; sellers should consider acting now to avoid setting low comps later this winter.
Why pre-construction is the biggest risk
The pre-construction market was driven heavily by investors and speculation. Prices detached from resale fundamentals, leverage increased, and developers took on significant construction and financing risk. As interest rates rose and demand cooled, that leveraged exposure became a problem — we’re now seeing projects default and marketing firms laying off staff.
“The last time we saw this amount of developer‑owned unsold inventory was 24 years ago.”
That quote—based on CHC data and consistent with Altus Group‘s private data—captures the magnitude of the issue. Developers want to get delivered inventory priced closer to $700–$900 per sq ft, which would be $200–$300 below where they need to sell today. Achieving that requires more than tweaks: lower interest rates, falling construction/trade costs, and reduced municipal development fees. Until the oversupply is cleared, launching new projects is unrealistic.
New launches have stopped — the pipeline is frozen
According to pre-sale marketing data, there were zero new housing development launches in the entire Lower Mainland in both August and September. Normally you would see eight or nine project launches a month; that activity has gone to zero. The only projects that will continue to complete are those already started and under construction — they’ll deliver units over the next 12–18 months into an already saturated resale market.
Resale market deep dive — what’s selling and what’s not
Greater Vancouver currently has about 8.8 months of inventory — the highest level since April 2020. September showed the lowest sales-to-active-listings ratio we’ve seen recently. While some metrics (average/median sale price) don’t yet reflect dramatic declines, that’s because the market is illiquid: only the most attractive, move-in-ready properties are trading, and many other listings sit without offers.
Here’s what I’m seeing on the ground:
- Move-in-ready, well-located houses still sell reasonably quickly, but often for fewer offers than during the boom.
- Properties requiring major renovations (a “Vancouver special” needing a full gut) are largely ignored — renovations can cost $500,000, and few buyers want that burden when supply is plentiful.
- Generic one-bedrooms in high-rise towers are competing almost exclusively on price and are frequently going “no bid”.
- When properties go unsold, they don’t appear in sales data — that skews official price metrics upward because the sales that do happen are biased toward the best inventory or deeply discounted sales of bad product.
What this means for sellers
If you’re planning to sell in Vancouver, there are a few realities to accept:
- Winter is coming: traditionally December and January are very quiet. You’ve got roughly six weeks to get ahead of seasonal inertia and potential further price resets.
- If you wait and let another similar unit in your strata sell at a lower price, that sale becomes the new comparable and can reprice your unit downward.
- Be proactive: price sensibly, stage appropriately, and list while demand is still relatively higher than in the depths of winter.
What this means for buyers
Buyers are in the driver’s seat. With 8+ months of inventory and sentiment that it may continue to get worse, buyers can be aggressive in negotiations:
- Negotiate protections for future price declines—clauses, conditional arrangements, or pricing that reflects the outlook.
- Target move-in-ready or uniquely valuable properties that still attract competition.
- Make offers backed by solid financing (fixed rates around ~3.99% on many terms remain available, but shop around) and leverage the current buyer-favorable dynamics.
Outlook — timing and context
We peaked in February 2022 and are now roughly three and a half years into a correction. Housing cycles do turn, but predicting the exact timing is nearly impossible. To clear 8.8 months of inventory and move toward a balanced market will likely take time — it’s not something that clears in the winter months.
If sentiment and conditions are going to shift materially, a more realistic window for seeing a tangible change would be spring 2026, not December or January. But this isn’t a guarantee — it’s merely a reasonable horizon given the inventory levels, ongoing project completions, and the need for structural adjustments in pre-construction pricing.
Practical next steps
- If you’re selling: talk to an agent, price to current realities, and consider listing now if your goal is to avoid being undercut by comps later in the winter.
- If you’re buying: prepare your financing, be ready to negotiate for future protections, and leverage the buyer-friendly environment.
- If you’re watching pre-construction: understand the elevated risk. Developers are carrying record unsold stock; new projects have stopped launching until that stock clears or economic conditions change.
Final thoughts
The market remains a buyer’s market for now. Pre-construction is the major wildcard—developers need prices to come down substantially to clear inventory, and municipalities will need to consider fee adjustments to restart launches. Whether you’re buying or selling, be strategic: sellers should get in front of comps and buyers should negotiate from a position of strength.
If you want a one-on-one discussion about buying in the City of Vancouver, I occasionally open up 30-minute consultation spots on my Calendly (link in the video description). I don’t open those slots often—if you need representation or help navigating this market, book a consult and we’ll review your situation in detail.
We’ll keep monitoring the data and market activity, and I’ll report back as conditions evolve.
