Roundtable Discussion: Vancouver Real Estate Stats & Market Update: 2025 Insights

Introduction
Panelists
: Steve Saretsky (Vancouver) and John Pasalis (Toronto)
Locations: Discussion from Vancouver and Toronto

Vancouver Real Estate Market

Activity: Vancouver’s real estate market has shown steady activity in the first weeks of January.

Sales Figures Comparison:

  • 2023: 40,000 sales
  • 2024: 40,000 sales (comparable to 2023)
  • Peak in 2021: 70,000 sales
  • Long-term average: 50,000 sales

The Vancouver real estate stats indicate a significant shift from the market peak in 2021. This steady sales volume reflects the transition from a bull market to a slower, more stabilized market.

Toronto Real Estate Market

Current State: It’s early in the year, making it difficult to predict the trajectory for 2025.

Trends: January and February remain competitive months, even with low inventory levels.

Sales Figures: 67,000 sales in the GTA for 2024, a slight increase compared to 2023.

Market Dynamics:

  • Historically low sales volumes
  • High home prices and interest rates
  • Stable market despite these challenges

Price Dynamics and Market Behavior

General Trends:

  • Prices have remained stable, even with low sales and inventory levels.
  • The most significant price declines occurred in 2022.

Seller Behavior:

  • Sellers are hesitant to lower prices.
  • Many choose to rent their properties instead of selling at reduced prices.

Market Observations:

  • The Vancouver real estate stats suggest prices haven’t dropped as much as anticipated.
  • Condos have demonstrated stability, even with higher inventory.

Policy and Economic Outlook

Political Changes:

  • Justin Trudeau has resigned as Liberal leader, potentially triggering elections and leadership changes.
  • Conservative leadership under Pierre Poilievre is a strong possibility.

Policy Outlook:

  • The focus may shift toward sectors like oil and gas for economic growth.
  • Conservatives may adopt a hands-off approach to housing.
  • House prices are expected to stagnate during this period.

Economic Factors Affecting Real Estate

Construction and Economy:

  • A slowdown in construction is anticipated, which could impact the broader economy given the sector’s significance.

Global and National Influences:

  • Potential U.S. political changes, such as a Trump-led administration, may have ripple effects.
  • Comparisons with Australia and New Zealand highlight different housing strategies.

Consumer Advice and Market Expectations

Advice for Sellers and Buyers:

  • Sellers should price realistically to attract buyers.
  • Renting may be a viable alternative if selling isn’t feasible.

Expectations for 2025:

  • The market is expected to remain flat, with minimal price growth.
  • A slow recovery is anticipated for larger units and specific regions.
  • Buyer and seller sentiment may shift as the year progresses.

Conclusion

Market Summary: The Vancouver real estate stats and trends from other markets indicate an anticipated stagnant market with limited price growth.

Future Outlook: A Conservative leadership is unlikely to make drastic changes to the housing market.

Consumer Impact: Sellers will continue to face challenges, particularly in certain segments of the market.

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